Facebook & Twitter growth flat, but unaffected by Russian ban
The Russian ban on certain social networks has hit some platforms harder than others. In its latest worldwide social network user forecast, Insider Intelligence expects TikTok and Instagram to take the biggest hit to their user bases, while Facebook and Twitter will be virtually immune due to their small exposure in the country.
TIKTOK
Insider Intelligence has slashed its forecast on TikTok usage in the country. Our Q4 2021 forecast had monthly usage growing in Russia by 7.0% to 26.45 million in 2022. We now expect usage to decline by 22.9% to 19.39 million this year. While TikTok has not been completely banned in Russia, the company recently suspended video uploads and live streams from the country, in addition to blocking outside posts from being seen by Russian users.
Despite the dramatic hit in Russia, TikTok will still grow by double-digits worldwide in 2022, even surpassing our prior expectations. We expect usage to soar 17.4% to reach 813.72 million. This is higher than the 755.04 million users we expected in our prior forecast, bolstered by robust growth in other countries and underscoring the app’s enormous popularity globally.
“TikTok’s growth has been nothing short of meteoric,” said Jasmine Enberg, principal analyst at Insider Intelligence. “Continued strong growth in the rest of the world will pick up the slack for the losses in Russia, proving once again there’s little that can quell the ‘TikTok effect.’”
INSTAGRAM
Instagram was one of the most popular social networks in Russia, before being banned earlier this year. Our November 2021 forecast had usage growing 4.1% in Russia to 52.91 million. In addition to growth in other markets, worldwide Instagram usage was expected to grow 5.8% to 1.28 billion. However, with usage in Russia now essentially zero, we now expect Instagram’s global user base to grow by just 1.6% to 1.27 billion.
“Like social users worldwide, Russians have taken to Instagram’s addictive ease of use and the ability to share experiences through pictures and video on the platform,” said Peter Newman, forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence. “A host of Russian-language influencers on the platform have also contributed to building a thriving set of online communities and drawn huge followings.”
FACEBOOK
Facebook and Twitter won’t suffer dramatically after being banned in Russia, since they had a small presence in the country. Facebook only had 7.5 million users in Russia in 2021. This year, usage worldwide will be flat at 2.08 billion users. That’s a slight downgrade from previous estimates, but largely due to contractions in markets other than Russia.
“Facebook never made it big in Russia as most consumers prefer lookalike local service VK,” Enberg said. “But the ban on Instagram is a big blow to Meta, which has relied on the app to keep up its user growth momentum as Facebook usage slows worldwide.”
TWITTER
Similarly, Twitter had just 5.07 million users in Russia last year, so the ban is fairly inconsequential to the platform’s worldwide user base. This year, we expect Twitter to grow its user base globally by 1.5% to 368.1 million. (For more detail, see recent press release on worldwide Twitter usage)
VK
Russian-based VKontakte (VK) is the beneficiary of the bans on the US-owned social networks. Our November 2021 forecast had usage growing by 1.6% to reach 64.15 million. We now expect usage to swell by 8.0% to 68.19 million, as former Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram users move over to the homegrown service.
Methodology
Insider Intelligence forecasts and estimates are based on an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from research firms, government agencies, media firms, and public companies, plus interviews with top executives at publishers, ad buyers, and agencies. Data is weighted based on methodology and soundness. Each Insider Intelligence forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of available data means the forecasts reflect the latest business developments, technology trends, and economic changes.
About Insider Intelligence
Insider Intelligence aims to be the world’s leading research service focused on digital transformation. Our mission is to empower professionals with the data, insights, and analysis to make grounded decisions in a digital world. Each year, we produce nearly 300 reports, 7,000 charts, 1,500 newsletters, and 200 forecasts across the industries of Advertising, Media, and Marketing; Financial Services; Healthcare; and Retail and Ecommerce. Insider Intelligence is owned by European media giant Axel Springer S.E. and was formed in 2020 from the combination of eMarketer and Business Insider Intelligence (BII).
